Rental listings fell after the housing decrees: what the 9% drop in Madrid shows, and what it doesn't

This week EsadeEcPol, the economics think tank at Esade, published a count of rental ads that made the news: in some cities, about one in ten long-term listings disappeared in a week. Here's what it found, how sure anyone can be about why, and where the decrees stand now.

What the count found

Jorge Galindo and Carles Gómez Llabrés counted long-term rental listings on Idealista in Spain's ten largest cities, from 29 September to 5 October, and compared them with earlier weeks.

City	Change in long-term rental listings, 29 Sep to 5 Oct
Murcia	−12,5%
Madrid	−9,2%
Valencia	−7,5%
Alicante	−7,2%
Las Palmas	−6,3%
Palma	−6%
Barcelona	stable

EsadeEcPol, as reported on 9 October 2026.

The authors say there's no comparable fall in the series since June. Most of the drop came between Wednesday 30 September and Friday 2 October.

Why not Barcelona? The authors point to rules Catalonia already has: rent caps in stressed areas and limits on seasonal and tourist lets. Landlords there had less new to react to.

What it shows, and what it doesn't

• It counts ads, not homes. A flat taken off Idealista may have been let, moved to another portal, or held back for a while.
• It's one week. Idealista itself says its data doesn't support serious conclusions over windows that short.
• Other counts are smaller. Fotocasa saw long-term listings fall 1,7% from 1 to 6 October, which it calls normal weekly variation. ASVAL, the landlords' association, counted 8,1% fewer listings nationally between 15 September and 1 October, before the vote.
• The trend was already down. Rental supply on Idealista has fallen about 20% in three years. Pisos.com says the decrees were at most a final push.
• Why landlords pulled ads is a guess. The authors say the data is "compatible with" landlords withdrawing flats before new rules apply. They also mention the election call. It doesn't prove the decrees caused it.

Where the decrees stand

• 2 October: Congress voted down the first version of the two housing decrees.
• 6 October: the government approved them again, and the BOE published them on the 7th.
• 8 October: Royal Decree-law 29/2026, with almost all the measures, came into force. Royal Decree-law 28/2026, on rolling over rental contracts, says it would apply from 15 November.
• Now: with the Cortes dissolved for the 29 November election, the Diputación Permanente (the standing committee of Congress) has 30 days to validate them. When we checked, no date had been set for the vote. If a decree isn't validated, it lapses.

What the decrees change for tenants, buyers and landlords is in our TU CASA and decrees guide. For renters, the main points in force today are a 2% cap on rent rises until the end of 2027, an extra extension of up to two years for contracts ending before 2029, and tighter rules on seasonal and room lets. There's also a new income tax deduction on rent: who gets it and how much.

What people say they want

The CIS published its 2026 housing barometer on 8 October, with 6.019 phone interviews:

• 86,9% are worried about housing (51,6% "a lot").
• 76,3% want the state to intervene in the market as much as needed to guarantee access.
• 70,6% support freezing rents for two years (25,9% against).
• 91,4% want more public housing.

Some sociologists, CSIC's Luis Miller among them, have questioned whether the sample leans left. The direction is clear either way.

If you're looking for a flat

• Fewer ads means more competition. Have your papers ready (ID, payslips or contract, last tax return) so you can say yes the day you see a flat you like.
• Check that a "seasonal" let is real. Since 8 October a temporary contract needs a real reason you can prove, like work or study, for more than 31 days and as a rule no more than 12 months. If there isn't one, it counts as a normal main-home lease.
• If your contract ends before 31 December 2028, and you're up to date with the rent, the decree lets you ask for an extra extension of up to two years, a year at a time, while it stays in force.
• Look at the building, not just the flat. The year it went up, the ITE and the tourist flats in it say a lot about the next few years. It's all in our checklist.